July 7, 2010

Looking back to move forward

By Niels Brouwers

Historic data is crucial in answering our questions about what will likely happen in the future with the woodland and forest systems in Australia. Changes in the past have given us indications of what might happen in the future. However, there is need for more investigation to find out how (and if) the projected changes in climate impact on woodland and forest system functioning. For the southwest of Australia, it is predicted that temperatures will rise and rainfall will continue to decrease over time. Prolonged droughts are also projected to occur more frequently. Understanding how these changes will (possibly) have a flow-on effect on woodland and forest functioning is crucial for making informed decisions in the future.

The ultimate aim of my/our work is therefore to predict what will happen in the future with the native woodlands and forests in southwest Australia in terms of health and development with the projected changes in climate. This work will contribute to informing us on how to deal with these possible changes in the future.

For this project, the biggest challenge is to acquire time series data spanning back 10-50 years or more that have consistently recorded (ecological useful) variables at one geographical location. For climate variables (i.e. temperature and rainfall) there are relatively good long-term historic data series available. However, long term historic datasets that tell us something about the vegetation and fauna in relation to, for instance, their health, are much harder to come by. Finding these data sources is one of the keys to the ultimate success of this project.

So what kind of “useful” data are we after? Well, anything that focussed on monitoring elements within the same woodland or forest system over time. You could think of annual flowering times of one or more tree species, or emergence of the first flowers of a particular plant species in the understorey. Or maybe the first sighting of a certain butterfly or other pollinator that was recorded over several years. Or measurements related to soil moisture or rainfall combined with growth measurements of a certain plant or tree during the last couple of decades or so.

I would like to invite everybody who knows of this kind of data, either gathered by him/herself or somebody they know, to contact me (Niels Brouwers; n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au). I am further keen to hear your perspectives and suggestions on this project. How would you tackle these issues? I am looking forward to your responses!

June 17, 2010

The link between forest health and fauna…answering the Big Picture Questions!

By Leonie Valentine

As the new fauna postdoc within the Centre, my research will be looking at the role of fauna in maintaining ecosystem health.  Sounds intriguing, doesn’t it?  I’ve been pondering just how I will tackle this broad idea over the last couple of months.    In one of the first meetings I attended, I asked what were the Centre’s “Big Picture Questions”.  As the Centre’s vision for research is to ensure healthy woodland and forest ecosystems, the following big picture questions were suggested: How do woodland systems work when they are healthy? What happens when they go wrong? How do we fix it?

So, how do fauna relate to these questions?  Fauna are a very important component of ecosystems.  For example, fauna are often pollinators of plant species, and the abundance and species of herbivores can change plant species richness as well as ecosystem processes.  Fauna are often used to monitor the ‘health’ of an ecosystem. For instance, the health of freshwater systems is often measured by the number and diversity of native and non-native invertebrate fauna and fish.

The impact of ecosystem processes, such as fire, can also alter the “ecosystem health” of a forest or woodland.  Some recent work I’ve been doing this year with the Department of Environment and Conservation has examined the productivity (in terms of fruit produced) of Banksia attenuata and B. menziesii in different time-since-last-fire habitat.  What does this have to do with fauna I hear you say??  Well, Carnaby’s Black-Cockatoo is an endangered cockatoo that feeds on Banksia of the Swan Coastal Plain, and the loss of food resources has been attributed to their decline.   By examining the productivity of Banksias in different fire-aged habitat, we can provide information to land managers on the range of fire-free intervals that will result in the greatest amount of food resources for Carnaby’s.

For my future work with the Centre, I’m particularly interested in how predation affects fauna assemblages.  Carnivores can regulate the population abundance of other fauna, and without native predators, or with the introduction of non-native predators, changes to the ecosystem health can occur.  For example, when wolves became extinct in Yellowstone National Park, their prey (elk) altered their browsing behaviour to an extent that nearly led to the localised extinction of two cottonwood tree species.   In a move towards restoring the ecology of this ecosystem, wolves have been reintroduced into Yellowstone National Park.  In SWWA, introduced foxes have been implicated in the dramatic decline of numerous native mammals.  I’d like to look at how the loss of native mammals from SWWA may have impacted ecosystem health. In addition, I’m interested in examining how the removal of foxes may change native faunal assemblages, as well as the impact of other meso-predators on fauna in declining and healthy woodlands.

Of course, there are many other projects that I’d like to look at too! In order to answer the Big Picture Questions there are a number of issues that researchers in the Centre need to understand.  Ideally, we need to know how faunal assemblages are composed and operate in health ecosystems, what happens to the fauna when the ecosystem health declines, and how fauna can contribute towards fixing a declining ecosystem.  Looks like we’ve got our work cut out for us!

May 24, 2010

So how can playing with virtual worlds help the real one?

By Michael Renton

(Click the image first and see what happens)

Building computer simulations involves deciding which aspects of a real-world system are most important, and then representing them ‘in silico’ by using mathematical equations or computer-coded algorithms and rules. Models cannot include every part of reality, and thus must always simplify reality – in fact this is what makes them useful! A model that includes too much becomes just as difficult to understand and analyse as the real world. For example, if we want to model the effect of climate change on the growth of a tree in South-Western Australia, we don’t represent a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil in our model! Modelling thus requires decisions about which parts of the world should be represented in the model, and about exactly how to represent them. These decisions will always involves trade-offs between desirable objectives, such as realism, precision, explanatory value, simplicity and generality.

Models can be made for various purposes. Models can be created to help clarify or understand, for purposes of comparison, prediction or management, or in order to educate and communicate ideas, or even to convince people. They can simply help visualise ideas or results, or aim for accurate prediction in a range of conditions, or act as a theoretical framework for experimental investigations. They can save time and money by helping to focus experimental resources, identify knowledge gaps, and synthesise knowledge. Sometimes, if experiments are impossible, too dangerous, too expensive, or would take too long, then modelling is the only option for predicting what will happen under different scenarios. Clearly identifying the purpose of a model is essential for guiding decisions about what to represent in a model and at what level of detail.

In particular, computer simulation modelling may be able to help us better understand, predict and manage the health of forests and woodland ecosystems in the face of changing climates. By modelling important ecological processes happening across a spatially mixed agricultural landscape with bushland fragments, we might be able to predict the effects of different restoration strategies on biodiversity and agricultural production, and thus choose the best strategies. By representing trees as individuals growing in groups including different species, we can predict the way that they deal with reduced rainfall, while taking into account different species’ strategies for water use and individual variability, and explore possible management options, such as burning or thinning. And by modelling the important ecological processes operating across larger scales, such as local extinction and re-colonisation, gene flow, seed dispersal, competition and evolution, we can predict how the range of different species will change with climate change, and whether restoration or assisted migration can help threatened species persist. In all these situations, experimental data is essential but full experimental analysis is impossible, due to the costs and scales involved, and so building and playing with virtual worlds provides an opportunity to help understand and benefit our real one.

May 12, 2010

Deep freeze

By Marleen Buizer and Katinka Ruthrof

What does our Research Centre on “Climate Change Woodlands and Forest Health” have to do with the federal governments’ latest decisions on the abandonment of the newest version of an Australian Emissions Trading Scheme?

Keep reading →

April 16, 2010

The real significance of mass tuart flowering?

The following is what Colin Spencer of the City of Bunbury observed. Some active followers of the blogonforesthealth may have noticed his call in the comments section. In response to his observations, and in addition to her earlier blog posting, Katinka Ruthrof responds and … comes up with a suggestion. Food for thought?

Keep reading →

March 26, 2010

Wandoo: on flowering, honey yield and fruit production

By Liz Manning, in conversation with beekeeper David Leyland and researcher Ryan Hooper

2010 is shaping to be a fantastic year for eucalypt flowering and fruit crops. The prolific flowering of marri (Corymbia calophylla) and powderbark (Eucalyptus accedens) trees around York and the Helena Catchment is being copied by wandoo (E. wandoo). Many trees are laden down in bud, ready to burst into flower. What happened!?

Keep reading →

March 3, 2010

Budding promises: potential mass flowering in tuart in Yalgorup

By Katinka Ruthrof

As you may be aware, we have a seed collection program for Yalgorup National Park (Bulletin 10). We collect seed for a number of reasons, including: to conserve the genetic resource for the area, to undertake restoration trials and carry out broadscale restoration elsewhere.

Late last year we had another seed collection day (technically it’s fruit collection, rather than seed collection) and over 10 people came to help. We were walking towards our first tuart (keeping one eye out for any ticks) when we noticed a number of tuart opercula on the ground. Opercula (Latin for ‘little lid’) are caps which protect the flower during maturation.

Looking more closely into the canopy, we saw that the tree contained a large number of flower buds. Then the next, and the next… almost all of the tuart trees that we saw contained flower buds. This was exciting! These trees have been stressed since the mid 1990’s and we haven’t seen a mass flowering event in this part of the park since.

Until recently, very little was known about tuart reproduction (e.g. cycle of bud production, flowering times, number of seeds/fruit etc.). What we do know (from studies in other parks and anecdotal evidence) is that tuart has a very irregular and intermittent flowering, which leads to a variable seed production and supply (hence seed collecting is not as easy as one would think). For Yalgorup National Park, this intermittent flowering, on top of the massive decline that is occurring, has resulted in very low levels of fruit and seed.

This has larger scale implications for areas with declining eucalypts. Without canopy stored seed, management interventions such as prescribed burns will not facilitate eucalypt seedling recruitment. Indeed, fire at this time could cause massive changes in community structure and facilitate weed invasion. But that’s another blog topic…

Where to go from here? Well, in many temperate eucalypts, flowering occurs one or more years after bud initiation, followed by one year of fruit development. So, if all goes well, the buds will develop into flowers and the flowers will be pollinated, develop into fruit and set seed. Then hopefully the fruit will survive any pre-dispersal seed predators (e.g. those with beaks). If all that falls into place, book it into your calendars everyone, next summer we will hopefully have plenty of tuart seed to collect.

February 16, 2010

Wandoo Wildlife

By Tracey Moore

After 6 weeks of trapping for small mammals, amphibians and reptiles in wandoo woodlands I feel safe to say I have seen some amazing fauna and some funny sights.

Keep reading →

February 1, 2010

“What you see is… not what it is…?”

Pieter Poot presented last week in one of our ‘exchanges’-meetings about UWA’s research on Wandoo crown decline. His presentation once more demonstrated the arbitrary nature of words like tree or forest ‘health’. A not so healthy looking tree (e.g. one with flagging branches) may in fact partly be adapting to drought in its own particular way!

Keep reading →

January 5, 2010

A New Year after Copenhagen

By Marleen Buizer, Postdoctoral Researcher

Was it to be a Roadmap, an Agreement or a Treaty? In the very end, it became ‘but’ an agreement with a commitment to limit global warming to 2°C. What do they mean by commitment? It gives an odd feeling, this agreement, as temperatures outside are swinging around 40°C now and temperatures in Australia are breaking new records almost every year. Unfortunately, the Copenhagen agreement has no teeth. No deadline for a legally binding treaty, no commitments to CO2-reductions and no reduction target for the long run. I am telling myself that it is normal for these processes to take a long time…

So what is next for us? While Copenhagen came to a standstill in December, we went out in the Wandoo forests, to select sites for future research and, later on, to participate in a field trip organized by Liz Manning. We found that in some areas the Wandoo were doing remarkably well, but why were they not doing so well at other spots? What makes the difference? How about the Tuarts in the coastal zone? At seed collection day with volunteers, we found many Tuarts full with buds and yet some other trees were obviously suffering. If it is about global climate change, why then are results so differentiated and local? Though Climate Change for some has become an empty signifier or an umbrella term for a whole range of phenomena, it is also a trigger for relevant research as far as we can judge it; to what extent does a shortage of water affect the trees? Are they able to adapt? What are the conditions in which they can? What is the role of borers and fungi? Etcetera. Regardless of Copenhagen, there is work to do in 2010! We wish you an explorative productive new year with plenty of common sense!